Of all the psychological phenomena and blind spots that influence the perceptual systems of human beings, I think that recency bias has a particularly fascinating role in how we see the world. Recency bias is the idea that it is our latest experiences of a person or happening which will come to most powerfully shape our present views and feelings about that person or event. From its workings, we see a distortion in perception that doesn’t fully capture and reflect the sum-total of experiences that we have had of that person or circumstances across a broader span of time, which would be a more accurate measure of the characteristics which define their nature. If we look closely at the landscape of our lives, we can see this bias play out in numerous domains.
In our most intimate relationships, arguments happen quite frequently because of undesirous behaviour that is processed as being habitually demonstrated, when in reality the likelihood is that it is more of an aberration in its occurrence. Many a partner has been left baffled and feeling outright resentful for a momentary shortcoming or lapse of attention that has turned into a stain on their character because what has been forgotten are the numerous instances in which they have previously done the thing that they are presently accused of not doing (taking out the bins, listening attentively, coming home on time, fill in the other blank…).
As we assess our own performance in the area of work, we have to get perspective when we encounter failure or haven’t met the standards that we are accustomed to holding. While these setbacks can sting in the moment that we experience them and threaten to dominate our thoughts as we ruminate on them, we should maintain the self-awareness to not get caught up in those feelings and internalise them as a pervasive feature of our work identity. After all, if we care to look, we will have an abundance of evidence to the contrary if we sift through our past successes and affirmations of competence. Here, it helps to remember that the experience of pain and suffering can have the effect of making us a prisoner to the moment where we think that because things are bad now, they will always be that way. It is only once we get some distance from the events that made us feel that way that we can escape that negativity bubble to appreciate that there is much more that we are doing right to validate what should be high levels of confidence in our abilities than what we are doing wrong.
Another domain in which this bias has an interesting effect is in the realm of politics. When people turn out to the polls to vote, often what they asking themselves of the candidates, even if they aren’t able to really articulate it, is a version of: what have you done for (to) me lately?, as in how do their existing or proposed policies improve or diminish their quality of life. In making this assessment, it can often be the case that the leader in power who is looking to be re-elected is at a disadvantage, especially if a number of their previous policies have been ineffective. This is often why leaders in such positions offer tax relief and make other generous election promises that they hope will allay concern with their shortcomings that are fresh in the mind of voters.
As I turn my mind towards what the result of the 2024 US presidential election might be, it is not clear whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be hurt more by the workings of this phenomena in the minds of voters. For Biden, some of the recent happenings that are likely to work against him are the porousness of the southern border that has led to a large spike in illegal immigration, increasing rates of violence crime across large cities that have taken a soft on crime approach and the feeling that as war rages in Ukraine and Gaza, the world has gotten less safe as a consequence of his passive foreign policy strategy of withdrawal and appeasement. For Trump, the recent memories of him when November rolls around will be of him sitting in a court room addressing the myriad of legal cases that accuse him of wrongdoing.
While this may work against him in reminding Americans of his character flaws (especially if he is found guilty of these charges), he is likely to shrewdly use the situation to his advantage by playing the martyr and pushing the narrative that he is unfairly being politically persecuted by his opponents to prevent him from dedicating time to his presidential campaign. The recent polling figures that have him ahead as preferred president shows that his strategy appears to be working. What Trump also has going for him is that how he governed in office (which drew its fair share of detractors) is more of a distant memory, given it has been four years since he held office, although the stain of his involvement in the events of January 6, 2021 is going to be difficult to airbrush from people’s memories. Compared to recent events in Biden’s presidency that critics can easily point to as examples of his weak leadership, Trump could benefit from the nostalgic rose tinted glasses effect that convinces many voters to believe that life was better during his term in office.
When one thinks about it, everything that we have experienced, positive or negative, happened recently…at one point in time, but life is a long game, where our character and progress is defined by consistency in behaviour and effort. This highlights the importance of knowing ourselves at a level that transcends what recent events may have to say about who we are. While these events are sure to convey some useful information about our circumstances and how we have shown up to participate in their unfolding, it isn’t wise to let them define us. With introspection, self-awareness and the resultant deeper understanding of who we are relative to how others might try to define us, we can reclaim the eternal virtues of perspective, presence and peace for today amidst the fresh to mind but fleeting disturbances that yesterday has brought about.